Six meetings across Britain and Ireland on Thursday 1 October, with Flat cards at Salisbury, Nottingham and Bellewstown, jumps at Southwell and Clonmel, and an all-weather evening at Newcastle. Our three picks come from Nottingham and Southwell.
The NAP is the twice-placed Gosden filly Thi Qar in the 15:08 at Nottingham, the next best is course specialist Duke Of Luckley at Southwell, and the each-way pick is the consistent Melissa Honey in a 15-runner sprint at Nottingham.
Thursday's selections
| Bet | Race | Horse | Price | Stake |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NAP | 3:08 Nottingham | Thi Qar | SP | 2 pts win |
| Next best | 4:35 Southwell | Duke Of Luckley | SP | 1 pt win |
| Each-way pick | 4:50 Nottingham | Melissa Honey | SP | 0.5 pt e/w (3 places, 1/4) |
NAP: Thi Qar (3:08 Nottingham)
EBF Oh So Sharp Maiden Fillies' Stakes (GBB/GBBPlus Race), 1m 75y, Good (Good to Firm in places), 7 runners
Thi Qar is the clear form pick in a seven-runner maiden and the NAP. She has run twice for John and Thady Gosden and finished second both times, which has earned her an official rating of 84.
That figure puts her 9lb clear of Princess Lottie (75), the only other rated filly in the race, and the rest are either unraced or have yet to make the frame. William Buick takes the ride, she has had 28 days to get over her last run, and a mile on good ground with some quicker patches should suit a filly who has already shown plenty of ability.
Two seconds from two starts says she is ready to go one better, and nothing else on the card has comparable form.
Main danger: Avebury Ring, an unraced Ralph Beckett filly ridden by James Doyle, is the main unknown.
Next best: Duke Of Luckley (4:35 Southwell)
Old Stag 70th Birthday Handicap Hurdle, 1m 7f 182y, Good, 9 runners
Duke Of Luckley is a Southwell specialist in form and the next best. His card shows four course-and-distance wins, and his last two runs were both victories, the most recent only 15 days ago.
He carries 11-13 off 120, so he has gone up for those wins, but he comes here sharper than the three horses around him at the top of the weights. Last Kingdom (139 days), Wild Goose (150 days) and Bluegrass (152 days) all return from long breaks, while Pigeon House has pulled up twice in his last four runs.
Freddie Keighley rides for Martin Keighley again, the visor stays on, and good ground at a track he clearly likes gives him every chance to complete the hat-trick.
Main danger: King Ulanda, a winner two runs ago and fitter than most at 22 days, is the one to beat.
Each-way pick: Melissa Honey (4:50 Nottingham)
Construction Day 14th Oct Handicap, 6f 18y, Good (Good to Firm in places), 15 runners
Melissa Honey has the most consistent recent form in a 15-runner sprint handicap and makes the each-way bet. Her last six runs read 121312, with three wins and three placings, and she ran 12 days ago.
She is the lowest-rated runner at 58 and carries just 9-0, so she meets the likes of Havanagreattime and Bright, both on 9-12 and with a run of poor efforts behind them, on very good terms. She has already won over course and distance, and David Probert is a strong booking at the bottom of the weights.
Stall 14 of 15 asks a question, but in a big field with three places on offer for each-way purposes her consistency should keep her involved.
Main danger: Act Of Violence, placed in two of his last three and on 9-5, is the main threat.
Thursday's meetings
| Course | Going | Races | First - last |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bellewstown | Soft to Heavy (Heavy in places) | 8 | 1:00 - 5:05 |
| Nottingham | Good (Good to Firm in places) | 7 | 1:23 - 4:50 |
| Salisbury | Good to Soft | 8 | 1:30 - 5:25 |
| Clonmel | Good | 7 | 1:49 - 5:17 |
| Southwell | Good | 6 | 2:15 - 5:10 |
| Newcastle | Standard | 8 | 5:00 - 8:30 |
We settle these tips at the starting price (SP). Stakes are in points: 2 on the NAP, 1 on the next best and 0.5 each way on the each-way pick.
FAQs
What is the NAP of the day for Thursday 1 October?
Our NAP is Thi Qar in the 15:08 EBF Oh So Sharp Maiden Fillies' Stakes at Nottingham, a 2 point win bet. She has finished second in both her starts for John and Thady Gosden, is rated 84 and is ridden by William Buick. That rating is 9lb higher than any other rated filly in the seven-runner field.
What is the going at Nottingham today?
The going at Nottingham on Thursday 1 October is Good (Good to Firm in places). Seven races are scheduled, the first at 13:23 and the last at 16:50. Two of our three selections run there: Thi Qar in the 15:08 maiden and our each-way pick Melissa Honey in the 16:50 sprint handicap over 6f 18y.
Which horse is the each-way bet today?
Our each-way pick is Melissa Honey in the 16:50 Construction Day 14th Oct Handicap at Nottingham, staked at 0.5 points each way. She has won three of her last six starts and placed in the other three, has a course-and-distance win and races off a mark of 58 with 9-0 in a 15-runner field.
18+ only. Tips are our opinion, not a promise: racing is unpredictable and losing runs happen. Stake only what you can afford to lose. Free, confidential help: BeGambleAware or GamCare on 0808 8020 133.